Sunday, December 17, 2023

COP28, Ukraine and Gaza

It's already December, so it's time for my annual post to this blog. Before I get to the main issue I want to talk about, I feel I should say something about the issue that is the most important one of all, namely the climate crisis. The COP28 climate change summit just concluded, and the results were mixed. On the plus side, there was some progress on a number of issues, and for the first time, the final agreement made reference to transitioning away from fossil fuels, a first for one of these summits. To be sure, this is a lot weaker than an unequivocal call for a complete phasing out of fossil fuels, which is what we really need, and a lot of the language was very vague, leaving huge loopholes in the execution of the agreement. As usual, there were some who still consider their ability to keep making money off fossil fuels more important than the future of humanity (even the Western nations who were pushing for stronger language on fossil fuels insisted that references to reducing fossil fuels specify "unabated" fossil fuels, as they are still attempting to push useless concepts like "carbon capture"; there were problematic references to using "transitional fuels", which implies so-called "natural gas", a fossil fuel; and "renewable energy" as used in the agreement includes harmful biofuels). The failure of wealthy nations to commit the large amounts of funds needed to help developing nations transition quickly to renewable energy is also a big problem. The truth is, even if all the nations who participated in the summit actually achieved their stated goals (very unlikely), it would be far from sufficient to avoid serious consequences from climate change. Indeed, it's already to late to avoid them, as they are happening already, and they will get worse no matter what we do. The issue is rather how much worse the situation will get, as there's a huge difference between, say, a rise in average global temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius and a rise of 3 degrees Celsius. So while the progress made at this summit amounts to half-measures, in this situation even half-measures are better than nothing. 

But the issue that I want to address at length is the contrast between the two major conflicts that are occupying much of the world's attention (though I should note that these are far from the only conflicts happening; unfortunately, the others, even very serious ones like the one in Sudan, are mostly being ignored). Russia's war in Ukraine has been going on for almost two years now, but it looks likely to continue for some time yet. The conflict that has grabbed the greatest amount of attention - and generated by far the most divisive global reaction - in the past two months is of course the war in Gaza, launched by Israel in response to the violent surprise attack Hamas made against Israel in early October. These two conflicts are both currently the subject of intense debates, including over US aid to Ukraine and Israel. But in many ways, the two wars couldn't be more different.

The war in Ukraine is a relatively rare case of a war where there is really no question regarding which side has right on its side. Russia - more specifically, its dictator Vladimir Putin - launched an unprovoked assault on a smaller neighbor (claims by Putin apologists that Russia was somehow provoked into the attack are based on misinformation and outright lies). What's more, Russia has committed and continued to commit war crimes on a daily basis, whether it's launching indiscriminate missile and drone attacks on civilian areas, mistreating POWs and Ukrainian civilians, looting Ukrainian towns, or even engaging in brutal treatment of their own soldiers. While of course Ukraine hasn't been perfect in this regard, the contrast is still huge. Ukrainian soldiers have even been regularly recorded saving pet animals trapped in war zones, while Russian soldiers have slaughtered zoo animals. It is absolutely obvious that any decent person should want Ukraine to win this fight.

The war in Gaza, however, is far less black and white, though there are a number of points that are clear enough. The attacks that Hamas launched against Israel were unequivocally immoral, and cannot be justified by Israeli government oppression of Palestinians. Hamas did not just attack Israeli soldiers, but they killed, assaulted and abducted innocent civilians, including women, children and the elderly. That is acceptable under no circumstances. Likewise, Israel's indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, with little or no apparent effort to prevent harm to civilians, is also unequivocally immoral, and cannot be justified by what Hamas did. It should be noted that Hamas does share some of the blame for Israel's slaughter of innocent Palestinian civilians, as it is apparent that their own barbaric attack was intended to provoke an Israeli response that was at least as barbaric. But Israel and its leadership are ultimately responsible for their own actions, and even excuses like saying that Hamas deliberately uses civilians as human shields, which is almost certainly true (though probably not to the extent that Israeli propaganda claims), is no defense for even the definitively proven war crimes committed by Israel, much less some of the atrocities that remain unconfirmed. Basically, there is no good guy in this fight. Hamas is evil, and Netanyahu and his right-wing government are also evil. Innocent Israelis and Palestinians are caught in the middle, and the latter in particular are suffering from an assault that deserves clear condemnation, regardless of its initial impetus. Israel should be free to target Hamas, particular those of its members involved in the October attack, but that cannot be allowed to come at the cost of harming civilians in great numbers, as is happening now.

One of the most disturbing aspects of the conflict has been the extreme and often highly biased reactions by some elsewhere in the world, including numerous hate crimes against Jews, Arabs, and Muslims in other countries. It's absolutely disgraceful the way both Islamophobia and hostility towards Jewish people has been unleashed by this conflict. As an aside, I am not a fan of the term "anti-Semitism". For one thing, it was a term anti-Jewish hatemongers coined as a name for themselves. Why should we use their term? And etymologically, it particularly sounds absurd when applied to Palestinians and other Arabs, as they are "Semites" as well. Maybe there weren't any other Semitic people to speak of in Europe when the anti-Jewish people invented the term, but in this particular conflict both sides are Semitic, so it makes no sense to refer to one side as "anti-Semitic". Regardless of the terminology, any sort of prejudice or discrimination against any group is unacceptable and must be condemned. 

Conversely, freedom of speech must be upheld, except in the case of unequivocal hate speech or harmful disinformation. Generalized statements supporting the Palestinian people (not Hamas) without expressing hatred against Israelis should be considered acceptable, as should generalized statements supporting the Israeli people (not the Netanyahu government) without expressing hatred against Palestinians. And there is certainly room for a little nuance. Obviously, any call for genocide against Jews or Palestinians should be condemned without reservation, but only if that is clearly the intent. While a slogan like "from the river to the sea, Palestine must be free" is certainly problematic for anyone who actually knows the geography and the history of the region, not everyone who uses it is necessarily calling for genocide against Israelis. Many of them are simply ignorant of what it implies, and some may just be thinking of the parts of the region that are largely Palestinian when they use it, without necessarily calling for Israel to be wiped out. In any event, even a slogan like that is hardly the same as openly calling for one or the other group to be wiped out, as unfortunately has been done by people on both sides.

Generally speaking, anyone commenting on this conflict should make clear that they condemn war crimes committed by both sides and that they want peace and safety for all civilians on both sides. Admittedly, the longer the Israeli bombardment of Gaza goes on and the more stories of atrocities committed by Israeli forces leak out, the more the focus will tend to be on criticizing Israel and its actions. This is understandable, as at the moment it is Israel that is causing by far the most harm, and they are the ones who need to be stopped from doing more. However, Hamas should not be allowed to get away with what they've done either, especially since, as noted above, they are at least partly to blame for Israel's crimes, as they deliberately provoked them. That said, I agree with those who think that the main focus now should be reining in Israel. The United States has a particular responsibility in this regard, especially since it has sided too heavily with the Israeli government up till now, despite the fact that its response was clearly disproportionate from the first days of the conflict. In fact, while for the most part I think Biden has been an excellent president, this is one area where his performance has been inadequate, to say the least. I don't think he has been as bad as many Arab Americans (understandably) feel, as I think it's clear that he and his administration have been doing a fair amount of work behind the scenes, particularly in brokering the previous ceasefire and hostage exchanges. But his slowness to condemn Israel's indiscriminate bombing and his administration's failure to adequately assist Palestinian Americans trapped in Gaza or more generally to show that they consider Palestinian lives as important as Israeli lives has been a major disappointment.

So this brings us to the question of US aid to Ukraine and Israel, currently being debated in Congress, with the White House heavily involved in the negotiations as well. The absolutely disgraceful aspect of this has been Republicans questioning further aid to Ukraine when they don't seem to have an issue with aid to Israel. As I've said here, the one party in these two conflicts that clearly deserves wholehearted support is Ukraine. And even aside from the clear moral superiority of the Ukrainian cause, there is the fact that Ukraine needs US (and European) support, because they are fighting a much larger and stronger enemy. While Russia's military has proven to be incompetent and corrupt, they still could conceivably eventually overcome Ukraine, or at least force it into a permanent and bloody stalemate, by sheer force of numbers. Israel, on the other hand, is militarily much stronger than Hamas. Granted, if the war there expanded to involve other forces hostile to Israel, especially Iran, Israel might really need support, and probably should get it (though the US should still insist on conditions such as not using the provided weapons on civilians, something it has so far failed to do). At this point, however, Israel doesn't particularly need military assistance, and frankly, as long as it is indiscriminately bombing civilians, it doesn't deserve it. As an aside, I should mentioning that naturally I think the third country that has been included in this aid package, Taiwan, fully needs and deserves the help. But even we don't need it as urgently as Ukraine does. 

Of course many of the Republicans claim that they are willing to help Ukraine, but will only do so if the Democrats and the White House agree to "secure the border". A number of them have said things like "our own security comes first", insisting that they can't help other countries without addressing border issues first. But this is totally ridiculous. First of all, they are two separate issues and can easily be addressed separately. Even more to the point, the border situation, despite all the fearmongering by the right wing, is nowhere near as urgent as Ukraine's fight against Russia, and they are on totally different levels. The US is not being "invaded" just because thousands of asylum seekers, many of them women and children, are trying to come into the country. To act as if a bunch of people fleeing deadly situations in their home countries are an invasion like the one Ukraine is fighting against is frankly disgusting. Using them as an excuse to block aid to Ukraine is disgraceful. And all that is aside from the raging hypocrisy of their assertion that spending money on Ukraine is wasteful, while they almost all have voted in lockstep for military budgets that exceeded even the huge amount the Pentagon itself was asking for. I can only hope that enough Americans understand that and give Republicans (and their loud-mouthed, vulgar, fascistic leader) the electoral drubbing they deserve. It is clear that despite the Biden administration's mixed performance on the Gaza conflict, if the US is going to give Ukraine the support it deserves and take any steps at all to address climate change (not to mention avoid falling under the rule of a vengeful and erratic authoritarian), next year Americans need to reelect Biden and give Democrats control of Congress. 
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