Egypt and Protests around the World

In my previous blog post, one thing I failed to mention was the numerous protests, some of them quite massive, that have been going on around the world lately. Here is a set of photos from the end of last month showing many of these protests. Two of the more notable protest movements have appeared in Turkey and Brazil. In Turkey, the increasingly authoritarian prime minister Erdogan has taken a hard line. It is unfortunate that in the past his main opposition came from the military, which though secular is also highly nationalistic and not very democratic. I hope that these protest might eventually lead to the growth of an opposition that is both secular and liberal. In Brazil, President Dilma Rousseff has taken a much more conciliatory approach, which is to her credit. However, corruption and other problems are so firmly entrenched in Brazil that even if she does more than make speeches she may not be able to satisfy many of the protesters.

The protests that have had the most dramatic results, of course, are those in Egypt. Last week, after massive protests in Cairo, the Egyptian military stepped in and forced President Muhammad Morsi (or Mursi) of the Muslim Brotherhood out of office. Though the US government has avoided calling this a coup, that's really what it was. Whether it was a good thing or not is another question. The Brotherhood had been governing in a high handed manner that showed little consideration for the opinions of anyone else, which was all the more inappropriate considering that Morsi's margin of victory in the presidential election hardly gave him an overwhelming mandate (after all, in the first round of voting more moderate candidates got a fairly large share of the vote, and if one of them had made it to the runoff, Morsi might have lost). Morsi's efforts to concentrate power in the presidency, even if they were part of a power struggle with remnants of the Mubarak-era old guard, were also disturbing. His government has attempted to silence critics with absurd prosecutions. It is not surprising that Egyptian liberals and minority groups such as the Coptic Christians came out in large numbers to protest against him.

On the other hand, the Egyptian military in its previous period in power showed that it is no more competent than the Brotherhood at governing and has as little respect for human rights. In addition, it is true as Brotherhood supporters point out that Morsi was democratically elected, and Egypt will not be able to build a democratic society if the results of elections are not respected. There have even been some assertions that Morsi was to some degree sabotaged by elements of the old regime, as most low level officials, bureaucrats and police officers as well as the judiciary were holdovers from the Mubarak era. While I think an active conspiracy is unlikely, it is very possible that many of these people did obstruct the Brotherhood leadership in attempts to carry out its policies (much as the DPP government in Taiwan didn't get much cooperation from the bureaucracy when it was in power). It will take time to build up a nonpartisan civil service that will not hinder the country's leadership, another essential element of a democratic society. But then respect for freedom of opinion and the rights of minorities is equally part of a democratic society, and on that count Morsi and the Brotherhood had likewise come up short.

Whether the overthrow of Morsi will ultimately be viewed as a good thing will depend in large part on what comes after. The impression I get from the events of the past week has been decidedly mixed. One of the most disturbing events was the violence between Brotherhood protesters and the military resulting in over 50 deaths, the vast majority of them protesters. Unsurprisingly, many observed that this didn't bode well for the transition. One problem is there are two wildly different accounts of what happened. Though the military's story that the violence was initiated by the Brotherhood supporters dominated the Egyptian media, that doesn't mean it is the truth. While I don't have a great deal of sympathy for the Brotherhood, it seems unlikely that the protestors would have attacked armed soldiers en mass, though it is possible that a few hotheads did so. On the other hand, it is equally possible, or even probable, that the military or pro-military provocateurs started the fighting. In any case, now most Egyptians are probably just hoping that things settle down (see here and here). For a good critical overview of recent events in Egypt, one that dishes out well-deserved criticism to all sides, see here. As the writer notes, it will be impossible to repair the split in Egyptian society without finding a way to engage the Muslim Brotherhood, despite its own responsibility for the current problems. In any event, as one observer stated in one of the news articles cited above, politicized arrests will have to end if the rift is to be healed (it seems that the US government agrees).

Unfortunately, Egypt's problems are not limited to the recent political conflict. As in many Middle Eastern countries, the appalling treatment of women is also a major long-term issue. As explained in this commentary, Muslim women have at times in the past enjoyed much greater respect than most male Islamists are willing to accord them today. One of the most terrible examples of how badly women are being treated in countries like Egypt today is the mention in that article of the huge number of sexual assaults that have been taking place in Cairo recently – and these are assaults not just by individuals, but by mobs. What's worse, the authorities have turned a blind eye to these assaults. To help pressure them to take action, I recommend that everyone sign this petition from Amnesty International. Perhaps the US government should cut aid to Egypt not for overthrowing Morsi in a coup, but for treating its women in such an appalling manner.