Paris Climate Summit

The most important thing going on in the world right now is the climate summit in Paris, which will help determine whether or not we will be able to avoid or at least ameliorate the severe disruption that will result from anthropogenic climate change. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have already reached 400 ppm (they were less than 300 ppm in the 19th century, when the Industrial Revolution was first getting into full swing), methane levels are also rising, and the average global temperature has already increased by about one degree Celsius. This year has seen an almost constant stream of record hot months, and is certain to be the hottest year on record, beating out 2014, which is the current record holder. Even if the current summit produces an unexpectedly strong, binding agreement, we will almost certainly see a further increase in the average global temperature of about 1.5 degrees Celsius. Unfortunately, even the more modest target of a 2 degree Celsius increase, regarded as the maximum that we can afford if we want to avoid catastrophic disruption, will prove difficult to meet if the world’s political leaders don’t start showing more boldness than most of them have demonstrated so far. Humanity has to decisively break free of its dependence on fossil fuels, which means standing up to the wealthy and politically well-connected oil and coal interests, and we also need to make major changes in how we feed everyone. Without immediate steps along these lines, we’re likely to see temperature increases of over 2 degrees Celsius, possibly much higher.

Even a complete lack of action would not result in anything like the extinction of humanity, much less all life on Earth. For that matter, the planet’s natural climate balancing mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle, will probably eventually undo much of the damage. But the key word is “eventually”; we’re talking about thousands or even tens of thousands of years, a short time period as far as the Earth is concerned, but a very long time in comparison with human history. This is why the argument made by climate change deniers that what climate change is occurring is not big deal because the climate is “always changing”. The problem is that thanks to us, it is changing as much in just a few centuries as it might normally in many thousands of years. The Earth and Terran life in general can adapt to these changes, but it will take a long time to do so. The changes that will result just within this century from continued inaction will in the meantime flood low-lying areas all around the world, including cities and densely populated areas that are home to hundreds of millions of people, crops that feed hundreds of millions more will have their production disrupted, some small island nations will disappear entirely, and many species will become extinct. While humanity as a whole is adaptable and will almost certainly survive, suffering will be widespread. In fact, if change is severe enough, modern human civilization could be in danger. While some of humanity will probably be able to go on as usual even if millions die and hundreds of millions are made homeless, it’s possible that disruption will reach a scale where even the world’s developed nations will descend into chaos. After all, it’s highly probable that the climate change that has already occurred contributed to the current problems in Syria. If global temperatures rise by as much as 4 degrees Celsius, the world may end with a dozen places as messed up as Syria and tens or even hundreds of millions of refugees trying to get into the world’s wealthy nations. This is even aside from the changes experienced by those nations themselves, including densely populated areas becoming uninhabitable. Can human civilization endure the strains that will result? Maybe, but it’s far from certain.

I’ll admit that I’m fairly cynical about whether we will be able to hit even the 2 degree target, which is already on the high side. There’s still too much apathy and outright resistance by the foolish and the selfish. But this doesn’t mean I agree those who just throw up their hands and say we can’t do anything so we shouldn’t bother trying. Every little bit we do now may save millions of lives in the future, so we should do as much as we possibly can as soon as we possibly can.